Dire Straits: Why China Hasn’t Invaded Taiwan

As Hong Kong’s peaceful protests start turning into strife, and the signage of revolution begins to be written on the walls, the PLA’s deadline to prep a prompt and practical plan of invading Taiwan draws nearer. But, why 2020? What are the real reasons why China hasn’t taken the relatively minute island that has defied the Chinese Communist Party since 1949?

Since 1949 when the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai Shek tactically chose the island of Formosa to retreat to as their last stronghold against the CCP, the People’s Republic of China has been eyeing to takeover this rogue population of Chinese people. Make no mistake, China is not a monolithic culture. The Taiwanese written language is an ancient Chinese language now to the mainland’s mandarin. The mainland cultural revolution had wiped out the majority of the “old ways”, which have survived in Taiwan. Taiwan has now become an example of what China could have turned out to be without the CCP, and that is an existential threat for the CCP; “what could have been”.

 

So, what has been holding back the CCP from eradicating this nemesis? The process of contemplating that question is, like most things, perhaps more important than the answer. One must look towards more than one route to properly pick the right road to take. China is a prime example of that.

Of course, the CCP has considered the option of just going in and decimating the Taiwanese army to gain control of the only remaining defying factor that’s a part of the sphere of what they consider as China. But, they also have considered that that may not be the best option for them, no matter how tempting it may be.

 

In order for the CCP to gain control and maintain control over Taiwan, they need mass occupation like in Xinjiang where they’ve “encourage” a large population of Han Chinese to settle there. To actually take control of another state one must populate that state with people that are actually amiable to one’s control. The Indonesians tried this in central Kalimantan, but failed traumatically.

Then there’s those pesky Americans that have been backing Taiwan since before there was a Taiwan. It wasn’t that Mao wasn’t a likable guy or anything, or that Chiang Kai Shek was a super cool guy, it was that the whole anti religion, anti sacredness of private owner, totalitarian commy ideals just didn’t fly for the Americans. Like how an officially independent Taiwan doesn’t fly for the CCP. So, the US of A has always been a big thorn for the PLA, whom recently turned 92 years old on August 1st, in displaying their military might and taking Taiwan by brute force.

And then, there’s the infamous 180 miles of unfriendly seas that the Hakka Chinese call the “Black Ditch”. The Taiwan Strait is so formidable that, well, even the CCP who’ve ran over their own people with tanks don’t want to cross over in a war.

But with what’s happening in Hong Kong, it’s becoming a do or die situation for the CCP. If Taiwan somehow comes to the support of the Hongkongers that want semi-independence from the CCP that will make XI and his communist party not so happy.

So, as the hengemen of the CCP are prompt at the borders of Hong Kong and the deadline for an invasion plan of Taiwan draws closer, the PLA are facing dire straits that will prove them as the People’s Liberation Army or the People’s Losing Army, and I mean morally.