Oil on Pace to 17-Y Low, Dropping to $25 from Weak Demand, COVID-19 and Price War!

Oil prices continued to fall for a third day this week as global demand remained weak, coupled with the coronavirus outbreak that limited travelling and oil price war, mainly between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

 

As of 16:50 local time in Thailand, Brent fell $1.08/bbl or 3.76% to $27.65/bbl while WTI plunged $1.57/bbl or 5.74% to 25.76/bbl.

 

Goldman Sachs said that the oil demand collapse from the spreading coronavirus looks increasingly sharp, following a demand contraction of 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by late March, while forecasting that the price could hit $20 in the second quarter of 2020 for the first time since 2002.

Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiCorp Stephen Innes said that the market has not yet hit its lowest point and predicted oil prices may fall to as low as $18/bbl.

 

U.S. companies are starting to falter after such a decline. ExxonMobil saw its credit rating downgraded by S&P from AA+ to AA with Negative outlook, while RBC cut ExxonMobil’s stock recommendation to Sell.

Pioneer Natural Resources cut 2020 capex by 45% and cut its rig count in half from 22 to 11 within the next two months. BP also cut its capex by 20%.

 

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco said that it was very “comfortable” with an oil price at $30/bbl as the company will elevate its output to 12 million bpd next month. “In a nutshell, Saudi Aramco can sustain the very low price and can sustain it for a long time,” said CEO Amin Nasser.