PTTEP Gains 2.5%, Analyst Recomm. “BUY” on Expected 70% Earnings Growth in 2021

The share price of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) rose ฿3.00/share or 2.47% to ฿124.50/share as of 11:15 local time in Thailand, with a trading value of 979 million baht.

KTBST Securities (KTBST) holds a “BUY” rating on PTTEP with an unchanged 2022E target price of 138 baht, based on WACC of 6.7% and no terminal growth. KTBST forecasts 3Q21E net profit to grow +35% YoY, +36% QoQ to 9.7 billion baht. YoY increase should be from higher sales volume and average selling price (ASP) while a narrower hedging loss should support QoQ growth. 

In 4Q21E, KTBST expects sales volume to recover QoQ following a   planned maintenance shutdown of PTT’s gas separation plant in 3Q21, and startup of the Algeria HBR project (phase 1). 

KTBST maintains its 2021E/2022E net profit at 38.7 billion baht (+71% YoY)/45.0 billion baht (+16%). Sales volume should increase to 413/481 kboed, compared to 354 kboed in 2020, thanks to contribution of new projects. KTBST also forecasts Dubai crude oil to increase to USD67.1/USD66.0/bbl (from USD42.3/bbl in 2020). Meanwhile, unit cost should decline on the back of higher sales volume.