Daily Strategy for Investors on September 28, 2020

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on September 28, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows: 

 

Investment Ideas:

The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET Index this week (28 Sep – 2 Oct) to move in a side-way down manner, despite the positive factors from Window Dressing, but still has several risk factors and gain more weight which is a factor that pressures the SET Index while investment still has expectations for economic stimulus measures from both domestic and international. It is an issue to follow which if there is progress, AWS estimates that the SET Index will move in the range of 1,226-1,279 points, focusing on holding more than 50% of cash and choose to invest in Laggard play, Defensive Stock (Dividend Stock) and DCA stocks based on AWS Theme Investment.

 

The 6 Risk factors depress the stock market this week (28 Sep. – 2 Oct.) – Despite the positive factors from Window Dressing before the close of 3Q20, AWS believes it is not much positive for SET. 

The Thai stock market is still at risk from (1) the new lockdown measures in Europe after the rising number of COVID-19 cases put pressure on the economy (2) the appreciation of the dollar in a condition where the overall economy is still weak so it negatively affects the commodity market (3) the crude oil prices still weak from concerns over oil demand after Europe returned to announce a lockdown in many countries. 

As well as the supply side problems that have come back to pressure oil prices after Libya returned to export oil after the political conflict in the country began to resolve, while the crude oil drilling platform in the U.S. gradually come back to open more operations (4) the delays in issuing of the U.S. economic stimulus measures, even near the election (3 Nov), which may affect the U.S. economy to slowed down until the end of 2020, however, Democrats Prepared to propose a new round of economic remediation measures from the effects of COVID-19 in the amount of USD2.4tnbBut it is unclear the prospect of reaching the agreement. 

(5) the political situation in the country and (6) the revert to the ceiling & floor threshold at +/- 30% and adjust the short sell threshold to use a higher price or equal to the last trading price (Zero Plus Tick) as before after the past volatility of SET which It will take effect from 1 October. However, market conditions are uncertain and many risk factors causing trading on the short side to have a higher chance of making profits.

 

Technical View – Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,233 – 1,253 points. (Support at 1,239 1,233 and 1,225 points and resistance at 1,247 1,253 and 1,262 points). The recommended stocks are HANA, SAWAD, AMATA, AOT and AEONTS.

 

Theme Investment

1) Laggard Stocks (Short-term Trading within 1 month) – BAM, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, GPSC, MTC and WHA

2) Benefit from a successful vaccine development and opening countries to receive tourist measure (Short term trading 1-3 months) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL and MINT

3) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC

4) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA

5) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH

6) Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT