Analyst Expects JWD’s Earnings to Rebound in 2H20 on Strong Demand, Raising a TP to ฿10

KTB Securities (Thailand) reiterated a “BUY” recommendation on JWD Infologistics Public Company Limited (JWD), but raised a target price to ฿10.00/share due to earnings to return to growth path in 2H20-2021E on strong demand for cold storage.

 

KTBST foresaw a brighter earnings outlook over the next 2-3 years and forecast 2021E net profit to increase to a similar level recorded in 2019, a period the stock traded at 30x PER, upgrading a target price from ฿8.40/share to ฿10.00/share and 2021E PER multiples to 29x, which is +0.5 SD above its 3-yr average, from 24x (3-yr average). 

In 2H20E, KTBST forecasted net profit to improve QoQ to ฿60.00-70.00mn in 3Q20E, compared to ฿48.00mn in 2Q20, and to grow further QoQ in 4Q20E given growing demand for tuna cold storage. 

In 2020E, KTBST estimated net profit to drop -18% to ฿297mn. Looking ahead, estimating 2021E net profit to rise significantly +20% in expectation of a full-year revenue contribution from the latest cold storage #9 and the new barge terminal business, and stronger revenue from the auto warehouse & yard management and dangerous goods warehouse businesses.

 

JWD’s share price gained in three months and thereby outperformed the SET Index. KTBST forecasted JWD’s earnings to improve in 2H20E, as it believed earnings may have bottomed out in 2Q20. Additionally, KTBST estimated net profit to grow significantly +20% in 2021, while there is upside to its forecast if JWD opens new cold storage.

 

Cold storage business to remain bright. According to KTBST inquiries, JWD has estimated revenue from its cold storage business to continue to hit higher highs. KTBST forecasted total revenue to grow 17% CAGR in 2020-21E. KTBST’s forecast is based on assumptions that 1) JWD will book a full-year revenue from its cold storage #8 in 2020, which was opened in 2Q19, 2) an average occupancy rate for the cold storage business will exceed 80% compared to 78% in 1H20 on the back of growing demand for tuna cold warehouses given growing demand for tuna cold storage. 

In 4Q20 -tuna and seafood cold warehouse accounted for 68% of the total QTD compared to 36% in 2Q20 (Fig 1, 2), and 3) JWD will open the cold storage #9 in late 2020E, which should boost total capacity by 10%. Note that the cold storage #9 will be the automated warehouse, which should save cost by 10-15%.

 

KTBST forecasted 2020E net profit to drop -18% to ฿297mn as it estimated net profit to improve to ฿60.00-70.00mn in 3Q20E and to grow further in 4Q20E, although 1H20 net profit accounted for 47% of its full-year forecast. In the cold storage business, profit is estimated to increase further in 3Q-4Q20E. 

The general and chemical warehouse JCS would remain favorably with profit to be on par with 1H20 given the long-term contracts. The auto warehouse & yard management business is estimated to swing to profit along with improvement in the auto industry. 

The dangerous goods warehouse would improve on the back of a stronger demand following a lift of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. In the new business barge terminal at Laem Chabang port, revenue is estimated to accelerate from July after the Gazette stipulates that all barges must enter the port at Laem Chabang only.

 

In 2021E, KTBST estimated net profit to rebound +20% as 1) the cold storage #9 is expected to generate revenue for the full year, and 2) the auto warehouse & yard management and dangerous goods warehouse should benefit from a low base in 2020E.

 

KTBST foresaw earnings upcycle over the next 2-3 years and estimated 2021E net profit to increase to a similar level recorded in 2019, a period the stock traded at 30x PER. Key catalyst is stronger 2H20E earnings outlook, growing logistics demand following a lift of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, stronger performance in cold storage, general warehouse, and new business.