Daily Strategy for Investors on December 15, 2020

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on December 15, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows: 

 

Investment Ideas:

The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET today (15 Dec) to move in a range of 1,454-1,494 points. AWS expects the market to remain volatile in a narrow sideway. 

Foreigners’ selling pressure in the past 2 working days limited the SET recovery, as well as the SET was up 24% in six weeks, the market having a chance to rest from short-term profit-taking after the stock market responded positively about U.S. leader election results, capital flows into regional markets, including the SET Index and many countries began vaccination against COVID-19, allowing AWS to maintain a careful investment strategy.

Recommending to sell some shares or full value while new round of investment, recommend only speculation.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Conference (Fed) will take place from 15-16 Dec, AWS expects the Fed to maintain short-term interest rates of 0.00%-0.25%. While the Market Consensus estimates that there may be a change in the limit of buying bonds following the quantitative easing (QE) from the current USD80bn per month. 

Meanwhile, the Fed buys USD40bn per month of mortgage-backed debt securities (MBS) to stabilize the financial markets.

 

The latest WTI and Brent prices continue to increase which accept the hope that many countries Vaccination against COVID-19 began so it will help support the global economic recovery and the oil demand, including the incident where the tanker exploded at the Saudi port near Jeddah which is a factor supporting the price of crude oil in the short term. 

However, AWS estimated that the rebound in crude prices is still limited, with OPEC’s latest forecast of 2021 global oil demand growth of 5.9 million barrels per day (MBD), down 350,000mbd, based on the original forecast, the 2020 crude oil demand forecast is lowered to 90mbd, a decrease of 9.8mbd, a figure lower than the previous estimate. While the recovery of crude oil demand in 2021 is still uncertain. 

While the supply side will start to return to pressure in the next phase after the announcement of Iran to increase capacity from 1.8mbd to 4.5mbd, if the U.S. government under a new leader will relax the sanctions measures.

 

Core Investment

1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU

2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA

3) Stocks which expected that will have the outstanding performance in 4Q20 (Invest 1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA

4) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW

5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB