Analysts Rate “BUY” on GLOBAL in Light of Rising Steel Prices-Work from Home 

Analysts recommended “BUY” on Siam Global House Public Company Limited (GLOBAL) as strong earnings outlook should continue in 2Q21 thanks to higher steel prices. Together with its outstanding Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) during the work from home policy in April. 

 

With numerous store counts nationwide and solid financial position, analysts estimated full-year earnings for GLOBAL to top 2.73-2.98 billion baht. 

 

KTBST Securities (KTBST) maintained a BUY rating on GLOBAL but raised a target price to ฿25.00 from ฿19.50 while maintaining 2021E PER at 37.0x (peers’ average level of 33.0x). 

KTBST upgraded 2021E net profit forecast by 16% to 2.98 billion baht, which indicates a strong growth of +52% YoY, as it 1) revised up i) revenue forecast by 6% after raising SSSG assumption to +8.0% YoY from +3.5% earlier in light of rising agricultural and steel prices, and ii) gross profit margin estimate to 24.5% from 22.8%; and 2) cut SG&A to sales estimate to 14.5% from 15.0%. KTBST also raised 2022E net profit forecast by 12% to 3.38 billion baht (+14% YoY) as 1) total revenue is revised up by 9% on the back of the company’s plan to increase its store counts by seven next year from two earlier, and 2) gross profit margin is raised to 24.5% from 22.75%. 

 

Maybank Kim Eng (Maybank) said that GLOBAL has a bright 2Q21 outlook for both sales and profit margins. 2Q21 SSSG is expected to be quite high due to the low base in 2Q20, when some stores closed during the lockdown, with SSSG of -20% in 2Q20. The gross margin is likely to stabilise close to 1Q21 due to the high proportion of house-brand products and benefit from the high price of steel, together with increased operational efficiency. Maybank estimated 2Q21 earnings should continue to be strong, with significant YoY growth. 

Additionally, the profit should grow well YoY in every quarter of this year. A target price (DCF) is revised up to ฿26.00 from ฿24.00. Maintaining “TRADING BUY”.

 

KGI Securities (KGI) revised up earnings by 10% in 2021-2022. Steel price increased ~50% and may continue to increase due to higher demand from China after it implemented measures to boost steel import in order to reduce domestic crude  steel  production.  As a result, the steel price is likely to remain high, boosting GLOBAL’s sales and gross margin. KGI revised up 2021-2022 earnings to reflect i) 1-2% higher SSSG (to 10% in 2021 and 4% in 2022), ii) 50-60bps higher gross margin, and iii) 40bps lower SG&A to sales ratio.

KGI also raised an end-2022 target price to ฿27.00 based on PER 38.0x and maintained a rating of Outperform.

 

Other securities	Recommendation	Target Price
SCB Securities	BUY	฿29.00
Finansia Syrus Securities	BUY	฿27.00
Capital Nomura Securities	BUY	฿26.00
Kasikorn Securities	BUY	฿24.80