SET Edges Slightly Higher as the Analyst Expects 1,615-1,635 Movement Range

SET Index rose 0.39 points or 0.02% to 1,622.70 points at the open on June 16, 2021, with a trading value of 3.04 billion baht.

 

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) expected the SET today to move in a range of 1,615-1,635 points as the market would rest before the conclusion after the FOMC meeting late today (16 June). The SET yesterday (15 June) dropped 10.75 points (-0.66%), close to regional stock markets which fell within the 0.5% frame. The price of crude oil increased will support stocks in the energy sector, but AWS still weighed it as short-term speculation only. While AWS weighed the investment in small-medium stocks and the share price remains Laggard according to the Core Investment.

 

AWS believed the Fed will not change monetary policy (maintain short-term interest rates at 0.00-0.25% and will continue to buy quantitative easing (QE) bonds worth USD120bn per month), but the issues that follow are revised economic forecasts, interest rate, inflation and the unemployment rate, including a statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the right time for a change in U.S. monetary policy. At this meeting, the Fed will begin discussing the appropriate timing for a QE cut.

 

WTI crude oil price for Jul delivery rose USD1.24 (+1.8%), positive response to economic recovery and oil demand after the U.S. and Europe began to relax the lockdown measures so resulting in increased air and car traffic and help the demand for oil to recover as well. While negotiations on the 2015 nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran have not progressed causing the crude oil market to relieve concerns about the supply of crude oil which if the U.S. lifts sanctions against Iran and as a result, Iran was able to resume crude oil exports by 1.0-1.5mn barrels.

Also, follow the U.S. crude oil reserves report according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today (16 Jun) by Market Consensus expected that the U.S. crude reserves will drop 4.2mn barrels last week (ending 11 Jun).

 

Core Investment

1) Laggard Play (Trading within 1-2 months) – ADVANC, CPF, KBANK, BBL, MTC, EGCO, SPALI, LH, WHA, BDMS, BEM and BJC

2) Domestic Play / Re-Opening (Trading within 1-3 months) – BDMS, BEM, BAM, MINT, ERW, AOT, AAV, CPALL, CPN, CRC, BJC, AU and M

3) Stocks expected good performance in 2Q21 (Trading 1-3 months) – BCH, CHG, HMPRO, GPSC, BPP, PTTGC, IVL, PTTEP, PTG, SONIC, KWM, ORI, SPALI, KKP, KBANK and MTC

4) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – LH, QH, ORI, SPALI, ADVANC, KKP, TISCO, STA, STGT, TMT, TVO and STI

5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB