AWS Expects SET Index to Recover over Oil Play after a 4% Surge in Oil Price

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) expected the SET Index today to move in the range of 1,525-1,550 points, the risks put pressure on the investment outlook that is still at the situation of COVID-19 in the country which still has an increasing number of infected people, while the vaccination process is still delayed.

However, AWS expected the SET today to continue to recover from positive factors, especially the stocks in the Oil Play that benefited from the recovering crude oil price, as well as the existing investment theme that continued to have positive factors, such as stocks that benefited from the That baht depreciation, stocks in the Logistic group, and stocks in the WFH group. However, for investors who are just starting to accumulate stocks in this group, AWS recommended selective stocks which have the upside.

 

AWS noted that the WTI crude oil contract for Aug delivery was at USD70.2 per barrel, up USD3.0 (+4.5%), an increase for 2 consecutive business days.

The securities company believed that crude oil prices have recovered which was the result of a decline of more than 11% in the past week that reflects concern over estimated 2021-2022 crude oil demand following the global outbreak of the delta virus which affected confidence in the recovery of the global economy.

While OPEC+ has reached an agreement to raise output for the remainder of 2021 to 2022, Market Consensus recently revised down its 2021 crude oil assumption, down from USD80 to USD75 per barrel. This reflects the risks from uncertain crude oil demand and rising supply. This makes us think that the downside of this round of crude oil prices is gone.

 

Core Investment

1) Hospitals stocks (Trading within 1 month) TM, SMD, BCH, BDMS and CHG.

2) WFH stocks (Trading within 1 month) ADVANC, TRUE TPAC, SCGP, JAS, ITEL, INSET, NETBAY, YGG and AS.

3) Stocks which obtained benefit from Thai baht depreciation (Trading within 1 3 months) ASIAN, TU, HANA, KCE, SAT, AH, PACO, MEGA, NER, EPG, CBG and SMPC.

4) Stocks obtained benefit from export (Trading 1 3 months) APUR E, SONIC, JWD, WICE and NYT.

5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long term trading over 1 year) AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB.