Will Brexit Deal Ever See the Light of Day?

Prime Minister Theresa May has sought to negotiate a Brexit deal that ensures that the UK leaves in the smoothest way possible. The deal that came out after long negotiation was backed by her cabinet, but the real challenge is to get the approval from parliament.

After the deal was presented to the cabinet, Brexit minister Dominic Raab resigned over May’s deal, followed by pensions minister Esther McVey that sunk the pound by 2%, but was able to slightly recover after May’s statement that she will see it (Brexit) through.

 

It is impossible to satisfy everyone, and May knows it. Seeking to preserve the closest possible ties with the EU has upset her party’s many advocates of a clean break, and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up her minority government. While Eurosceptics in May’s Conservative Party said they had submitted letters calling for a vote of no confidence in her leadership.

Not long after, two junior ministers, two ministerial aides and the Conservatives’ vice chairman joined Raab and McVey in quitting. Veteran MP Peter Bone warned May that she risked losing the support of “many Conservative MPs and millions of voters”.

 

The deal will need the backing of about 320 of parliament’s 650 MPs to pass, but what if the parliament rejects the deal? There are some scenarios that could happen if the deal did not go through.

1. May could go back to the 27 EU member states and try to get changes to the deal based on objections raised by MPs, which is unlikely to yield any solution.
2. May could throw in the towel and let someone else have a go. However, as we know, the real problem is not with May but the impossible task to satisfy every party.
3. Leaving without agreement. May said if MPs rejected the deal, they would face Britain leaving without agreement, which experts say could lead to potentially catastrophic economic and legal disruption.

Essentially, the EU and Britain both need an agreement to keep trade flowing between the world’s biggest trading bloc and the United Kingdom, home to the biggest international financial center.

 

It is highly unlikely that UK will leave without any agreement with the EU to set the global market in chaos, but as the exit date is closing in, they must find common ground. Global markets are also keeping their eyes on the situation between UK and the EU, and ready to plunge whenever there are signs of any red flags.