Things Get more Complicated in the UK as Parliament Voting Draws Near

It is not the trade war between the U.S. and China that investors are anticipating at the moment. It is expected that the result of voting on Brexit deal from the UK parliament should be publicly announced late at night in Thailand.

According to the poll, British Prime Minister Theresa May is facing a likely defeat in today’s vote at parliament. There are a total of 650 MPs in parliament, while May’s Conservative Party has 317 MPs. However, after the survey from a number of MPs, only 44 MPs give May their supports, while 115 MPs (including 34 of May’s Conservative MPs) oppose the deal.

 

There are two scenarios that could happen today.

1. The UK can continue its path on leaving EU if the deal is approved, which is what a majority of British citizen had wanted when they voted to exit EU in 2016.
2. If she loses, May is required by parliament to come back within three working days with a motion setting out her next steps. The deadline for this would be the end of next Monday.

The second scenario would have made things more complicated than it already is. Things could have gone different ways.

Resignation
May could resign as leader of the Conservative Party, triggering an internal contest to replace her without a general election.

No Confidence Vote
The opposition Labour Party could call a vote of no confidence in the government if May’s deal is rejected. If a majority of lawmakers vote against May’s government, Labour would have 14 days to prove, by a vote, that it could command a majority and form its own government. That would allow Labour to take control of the country without an election. However, if the Labour is unable to form a government, an election is called.

Delay or No Deal
The exit date on March 29 could be delayed if the UK could not sort things out, but that would need approval from EU as well or UK would have to leave EU without a deal which will definitely cause a major crisis not only in Europe but global markets.