A Turning Point for TeleCom Operators in 2020, DTAC May Face Short-Term Crisis!

After the official announcement from the Royal Thai Government Gazette, ordered the National Broadcasting Telecommunication Commission (NBTC) to consider an extension of the 4th installment of 900MHz spectrum (4G) license of telecommunication operators (ADVANC, TRUE, DTAC), NBTC had set a meeting on April 11, 2019, to debate on the issue with three operators.

 

The previous payment method was to pay four installments in five years while the new regulation is to pay 10 installments in 10 years.

ADVANC acquired the 900MHz spectrum with an investment of THB 80,949 million, which to be paid THB 8,603 million in 2016, THB 4,301 million per year in 2018-2019 and THB 63,744 million in 2020. With the installment extension, the 4th installment of ADVANC will be extended by five more years as the company will pay THB 23,614 million for the 4th installment in 2020, and THB 8,164 million per year from 2021-2025.

As for TRUE who acquired the 900MHz spectrum with an investment of THB 81,639 million, which to be paid THB 8,603 million in 2016, THB 4,301 million in 2018-2019, and THB 64,434 million in 2020. With the installment extension, the 4th installment of TRUE will be extended by five more years as the company will pay THB 23,614 million for the 4th installment in 2020, and THB 8,164 million per year from 2021-2025.

Meanwhile, DTAC who acquired the 900MHz spectrum with an investment of THB 40,729 million, which to be paid THB 4,301 million in 2018, THB 2,151 million in 2020-2021, and THB 32,126 million in 2022. With the installment extension, the 4th installment of TRUE will be extended by five more years. DTAC will change its payment from settling THB 2,151 million in 2020-2021 to be THB 7,917 million in 2020, and THB 4,073 million from 2021-2027.

 

Nomura Securities had a positive view over the extension of the 4th installment, seeing more options and flexibility for the settlement of 900MHz license. But the extension would be granted only if the operators participate in the 700MHz bidding. Nomura did not recommend on speculation as the share prices had hiked since last week.

In the bidding for 700MHz, Nomura estimated ADVANC and TRUE to accept the license at the price of no higher than THB 11,000 million while DTAC was estimated at no higher than THB 4,500 million.

Moreover, this will be the first time that operators will use the new spectrum (700MHz) which may need more investment in the devices and equipment. It is highly likely that DTAC will not accept the extension which means no participation in the 700 MHz spectrum bidding.