Brexit Softly or Die Hard Brexit

On July the 22nd, the members of the Conservative Party will elect its new leader, and consequently choose who will lead Britain towards the standing “designated” Brexit date on October 31st. The results may very well determine whether Britain leaves the EU with or without a deal.

 

A Hard Brexit would mean possible shortages of certain medications, food products, skilled professionals, as well as tariffs on goods from Britain exported to the EU single market. A number of financial businesses, and international manufacturers based in Britain have already relocated to other EU member countries to avoid the uncertainty that may very well devastate their business endeavors in the EU.

Furthermore, a depreciation of the pound sterling is most likely unavoidable, and will burden businesses in Britain with higher costs for imports.

 

Virgin’s Sir Richard Branson has sternly warned in an interview with the BBC that a no deal Brexit would leave the UK in a “near bankrupt” financial state, and that this would be “devastating” for Virgin, and force the group to shift investment out of the UK.

Socially, a hard Brexit would further push the “remainers”, those who voted for the UK to remain with the EU, towards resentment with their counterpart and government. For example, legendary comedian of Monty Python, John Cleese, has “quit” the UK since last year, and opted for living on Nevis in the Caribbean, citing that he is “fed up with the corruption”.

 

Fears of a resurgence of “The Troubles” along the Northern Ireland border have been looming due to the conflict of interest concerning Ireland’s being a part of the EU single market, but having its traditional access of goods from and to mainland Europe blocked off by Brexit. Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Backstop that was meant to assure the undisrupted flow of goods in and out of Ireland has been rejected by parliament, and its replacement plan rejected by business groups.

However, Reuters reported cited that Ursula von der Leyen told a hearing at the European Parliament that the backstop was “precious, important and has to be defended.”

 

It is clear between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt that a “No Deal” Brexit will be detrimental to Britain economically, socially, and politically. However, it is unclear between them whether a No Deal Brexit or a No Deadline Brexit is more damaging.

During the July 9th debate between Hunt and Johnson, it was Hunt who admitted the possibility of further delaying Brexit beyond the set date on October 31st. Johnson had called Hunt’s flexibility on meeting the October deadline “defeatist”.

Markets and financial institutions have begun making their bets. Martin Gilbert, chairman of Aberdeen Standard Investments says there’s now a 60% chance of a hard Brexit. And with Boris Johnson leading on the polls, things are not looking so soft.