GRM Rises to Near 4-Year High avg. at $10.06/bbl, Analyst Expects a Solid Growth in 4Q!

Bualuang Securities has stated in the analysis, saying that the average Singapore GRM has increased by $2.89 week on week (WoW) to a 45-month high at an average of $10.06/bbl, buoyed by higher gasoline and fuel oil crack spreads.

The flood in the U.S. and the attack on two crude oil facilities of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco caused supply outage which had heightened gasoline prices to a two-year high at ฿16.75/bbl. In which it would be a positive factor to Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SPRC).

Meanwhile, the prices of Ethylene up by $50 WoW to $850/t last week. However, the cost of Naphtha rose $38 WoW to $520/t, making Ethylene spread rose only $12 WoW to $330/t. In this case, Bualuang believes it will be benefited on PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (PTTGC).

In addition, Bualuang Securities expects GRM to fatten even further in 4Q19, led by fall maintenance season, the onset of the Northern Hemisphere winter, and heavier demand for low-sulphur diesel ahead of the imposition of IMO2020 on Jan 1, 2020. Any unexpected shutdown or delays of scheduled commercial of date, supply would tighten, which would mean scope for upside to GRM.