GFPT Jumps the Highest in 19 Months, Analyst Recomm. “BUY” TP at ฿18.2 from Strong Growth

The share price of GFPT Public Company Limited (GFPT) rose as high as ฿14.40/share in today’s trading session, increased ฿0.90/share or 6.66% from the previous closing price at ฿13.50/share.

The share price rose the most in 19 months after a decline of 22% last month  from the fire incident at one of its plants. The surge might be a rebound from a plummet last month with an anticipation of the 3Q19 financial statement to have a positive outlook due to higher demand from China to substitute pork and seasonal demand in Europe.

 

KTBST has reiterated BUY rating on GFPT with an unchanged target price of Bt18.20, which is pegged to 2020E PER of 15.0x, or +1.5 SD above 5-yr average level. KTBST forecasts 3Q19E net profit of Bt404mn, down -8% YoY but up +18% QoQ. A decline YoY would be due primarily to lower overseas revenue following a stronger baht against the euro and British pound, and a narrower gross profit margin to 14.9% from 15.6%.

A growth QoQ would contribute to seasonally stronger demand given a high season of dining out in Europe, which should offset impact from a decrease in GFN’s profit contribution to Bt60mn from Bt78mn due to falling meat prices.

KTBST thus maintains 2019E net profit forecast of Bt1.3bn, which represents a growth of +26% YoY. The forecast is based on assumptions that 1) broiler price will increase +6% YoY to Bt35.00/kg on the back of rising export demand.