Goldman Sachs Expect Global Oil Glut within 3 Weeks, Suggesting a 20% Global Output Cut

The U.S. crude price for June delivery slumped below $15.00/bbl again as global oil glut made it more difficult for oil producers to balance the market by cutting output.

 

As of 14:32 local time in Thailand, WTI crude for June dropped $2.35/bbl or 13.87% to $14.59/bbl, snapping a 4-day winning streak from last week.

The outbreak of coronavirus which was one of the main reasons in oil price plummet has shown a tendency to decline as the infection and death toll in Spain, Italy and France started  to decelerate.

According to the Saudi industry officer, Saudi Arabia has started to cut its production from 12 million bpd to 8.5 million bpd ahead of the designated date agreed with OPEC.

However, the oil demand which had plummeted since March still could not be able to recover that easily even when OPEC and OPEC+ agreed to curb 9.7 billion barrels per day.

 

In the analysis, Goldman Sachs stated that the global oil market is on track to test storage limits in as little as three weeks, and it would take up to 20% daily cut of global output or around 18 million bpd, according to Goldman Sachs estimation, to prevent that.

“The world has reached an inflection phase in the pandemic where rebalancing is starting to occur, but it will likely take 4-8 weeks for commodity markets to carve out a bottom in demand,” wrote Goldman analysts in the analysis.

“(The cut) will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand,” stated Jeff Currie, one of Goldman Sachs’ analysts.