“Goldman Sachs” Expects Brent at $80 in 3Q21 amid Further Production Cut from OPEC+

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to by $5 to $75 a barrel for the second quarter, while adding another $5 to make the target price as high as $80 a barrel in the third quarter after OPEC and its allies decided to maintain their production cut policy into April.

 

“We believe it is now clear that OPEC+ is in fact pursuing a tight oil market strategy, with our updated supply-demand balance pointing to OECD (inventories) falling to their lowest level since 2014 by the end of this year,” wrote Goldman Sachs in a note.

The higher oil prices forecast was supported by the bank’s estimation that OPEC+ would lower its production forecast by 0.9 million barrels per day (bpd) over the next six months.

“Key will be the potential shale supply response, although the latest earnings season suggests investors are still a long way away from rewarding growth,” stated the bank while raising its 2022 U.S. shale production forecast by 0.3 million bpd.

In the forecast for the 4Q21 and 2022 see the crude price subsequently slipping back slightly, returning to US$75, due to the potential for higher supplies and decelerating demand gains.

As of 11:52 local time in Thailand on Monday, Brent Crude was at $70.83 a barrel, increased 2.12%, while WTI rose 2.10% to $67.48 a barrel.