Analyst Expects SET at 1,520-1,575pts with Limited Upside due to Covid-19 Situation

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) expected the SET this week (19-23 Apr) to move within the range of 1,520-1,575 points and remain volatile in the sideway despite short-term positive factors from the government measure stating the curfew and lockdown measures have not yet been announced. However, AWS believed the SET recovery remains limited by the domestic COVID-19 situation and the resumption of work from home measures.

The analyst recommended continuing monitoring the global COVID-19 outbreak, especially in the domestic where the number of infected people continues to increase. While AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines have been suspended by many countries after U.S. medical authorities, both the FDA and the CDC, recommend temporarily suspending use after detecting a venous thromboembolism. These factors continue to have a positive effect on the hospital sector. Also, stocks that benefit from the WFH measure and are a negative factor for tourism-related stocks.

In addition, foreign factor to be monitored this week is the ECB meeting (22 Apr). Market Consensus estimates that the ECB will maintain interest rates and will continue to adopt easing monetary policy.

For investment strategy, AWS maintained holding more than 50% cash to reduce market volatility. While the investment still focuses on stocks with unique positive factors according to our Core Investment.

 

The COVID-19 situation in the country, the average number of infected in the country last week (11-17 Apr) was 1,306 cases per day, while the previous week’s average (4-10 Apr) was at 375 cases per day. AWS still had to track the number of infections after a long holiday which is a factor limiting the market recovery. Concerns over this issue will continue to be positive for hospital stocks.

AWS chose BCH as top picks, including COM7, TQM, III, STA and STGT, while negative for tourism-related stocks, hotel and airline businesses, domestic consumer group, including the return of Work from Home measures which will affect BTS and BEM, as well as gas station groups (OR, SUSCO, PTG and BCP).

 

Core Investment

1) Stocks which benefit from waiver for foreign property holding in the country (Short term trading 2 weeks) NOBLE, ORI, LH and SC

2) Stocks which benefit from the COVID 19 situation (Short term trading 2 weeks) BCH, BDMS, COM7, TQM, III, STA and STGT

3) Stocks which obtained benefit from EV CAR Thailand 2035 (Trading within 1 2 months) BPP, GPSC, BCPG, EA, NEX, CHO and KCE

4) Dividend Play (Middle term trading 6 12 months) SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW

5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long term trading over 1 year) AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB