AWS Expects SET to Move within 1,535-1,615pts, Advising to Monitor Covid-19 Situation

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) expected the SET this week (10-14 May) to move within the range of 1,535-1,615 points as the SET index would remain volatile and come back to have additional risk factors that need to be monitored, especially this week.

There may be short-term profit-taking in a sell-on-fact manner, while the Covid-19 situation in the country is still a limiting factor after seeing more new clusters in Bangkok leading to the accelerated concern of seeing more infected people. While the number of new infected people last Saturday – Sunday exceeds the level of 2,000.

For investment strategy, AWS continued to focus on investing in global play stocks, but only speculation. In the short-term, be careful with the sell-on-fact momentum after reporting earnings, decreasing shares in the portfolio to 40% (originally 60%).

 

The U.S. economic report was unexpected, decreasing concerns over QE Tapering, but remains to be monitored as a potential risk factor in the future. AWS looked at the risks of global central banks, especially in Europe and the U.S. where QE Tapering will begin at the end of 2021 or sooner.

Although the U.S. reported a number of nonfarm payrolls increased by 270,000 (expected increase 1 million) and the unemployment rate increased 6.1% (expected 5.8%), the overall economy considered to gradually recover in sequence, including the attitude of BoE in the latest meeting that will gradually reduce bond purchases of 4.4 billion pounds per week to the level of 3.4 billion pounds per week between May-Aug 2021.

Although the credit limit for bond purchases is maintained under the easing measure, AWS looked at this issue as a risk-asset in the next phase.

 

Thailand’s vaccination operation is still below the target of Herd Immunity, which will require at least 300,000 vaccinations per day, even the government will issue additional stimulus measures, AWS put the weight on a small scale compared to the issue of additional vaccination and speeding up the vaccination process. This will bring the market back to a positive sentiment, as well as make the government’s tourism plan during 2H21 in line with the target.

 

Core Investment

1) For foreigners to hold a property in the country (Short-term trading 2 weeks) – NOBLE, ORI and SC

2) Stocks which benefit from the COVID-19 situation (Short-term trading 2 weeks) – BCH, BDMS, COM7, III, STA and STGT

3) Global Play (Trading within 1-2 weeks) – PTTGC PTTEP TOP SPRC CPF KCE HANA and SAT

4) Stocks which obtained benefit from EV CAR Thailand 2035 (Short-term trading 1-2 months) – BPP, GPSC, BCPG, EA, NEX, CHO and KCE

5) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW

6) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB