Will China’s “Three-Child Policy” Actually Work?

China made a major change on Monday by lifting the cap on births policy from two children per household to three in an attempt to raise the country’s birth rates as the limit on reproductions could jeopardize its fast-growing economy.

 

The so-called “One-Child Policy” can be dated back to 1980 when the Chinese government imposed the policy to slow population growth. Then the official announcement to end the one-child policy became effective in 2016 on a realization of the aging problem that grew at a rapid rate and could slow down its economic growth and development due to the weakening of the labor force.

However, the plan to increase its population seems to be ineffective as China’s fertility rate was stable between 1.67-1.69 children per woman during 2016-2019 and dramatically dropped to 1.3 in 2020 as the cost of raising children in China, especially in the big city, weighed on the parent’s decision of having another child.

 

Not just the number of child births that drop, but the number of marriages in China also see a dramatic fall as well. In just 8 years, the marriage rate in China registered a drop of 66% from 23.8 million in 2013 to 8.1 million couples in 2020, according to the data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Some families still cling to the thought of preferring a son over a daughter because the majority of males have more ability to earn more than girls. Nevertheless, being a man also faced some difficulties in marrying one’s daughter. Some parents demand the male to have a condo and a car, and even a proper (well-paid) job before willingly giving their daughter to the man, not to mention the dowry.

 

The population growth in China also saw a continuous drop as well for four consecutive years. During 2017 – 2020, China reported population growth of 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

 

Without proper help from the government sector to support the three-child policy, it would be difficult to get it to work when the two-child policy did not.

 

The official Xinhua news agency stated on Monday that the new policy will include a slew of other measures intended to promote childbirth. It’s not just a matter of changing the number of children from two to three, but of addressing the deep and wide-ranging social and economic factors that have deterred couples from having more children.

These include taking marriage, childbirth, parenting and education into consideration, guiding young people’s values on marriage and family after they reach marrying age, and combating undesirable social customs that have stood as effective barriers to marriage due to the social or financial constraints they place on young people.

China will also improve the range of childbirth and childbearing services available, expand accessible childcare, increase the fairness and supply of quality education resources, and reduce the education-related expenses that families face.

Other incentives include improvements to the system for maternity leave and maternity insurance, supportive measures on taxation, housing and other areas, as well as enhanced protection of the legitimate rights and interests of women in employment.

In total, these represent a systematic set of tools aimed at enhancing the inclusiveness of population policy, promoting the integration of the population policy with economic and social policies, and reducing the burden of childbirth, parenting and education on families.

 

Let’s see if the new policy and measures can encourage the country to increase its birth rate and avoiding the aging community or not.