BLCP

The mood is ruined! Such disappointment when Banpu Public Company Limited or BANPU’s shares creep slowly like a “snail”. While an average suggested price from brokers (IAA consensus) set at ฿27.30/share (highest ฿32/share and lowest ฿23.20/share), but the actual market price almost reaches freezing point at ฿19-21/share. One of the causes is from a huge loss of ฿1.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018. It is a nightmare that keeps haunting BANPU shares whenever they try to advance. In fact, this (huge) loss is simply from a lost case that has been settled since the first quarter of 2018. BANPU first shown a sign of losing the rhythm in the beginning of March 2018. BANPU had reached an all time high at ฿24.20/share, but the verdict from the Supreme Court ordered BANPU group to compensate misused in data usage for ฿1.5 billion with 7.5% interest a year (from July 2007 - March 5, 2018), which came down to ฿2.7 billion in total. Causing decline of BANPU’s shares to ฿18.90/share right after a 2018 first quarter financial statement. BANPU tries to get back on its feet, but a selloff from traders keep sinking it in the mud. In contrast, if we look into its financial statement, the turnover has a positive tendency from the coal business, which is their main business that yields average price at $100 USD per ton, and power generation business (BLCP), which will gain profit from exchange rate (weaken Thai baht). It will supposedly make more than 1 billion baht in profit. Judging from these positive tendency, BANPU’s second quarter financial statement will reach 3.3 billions baht by estimation. Jump to its third quarter in 2018, sales quantity in coal also has a potential to increase from Chinese tension in coal supply (from closing coal mine). Which will increase a tendency of making a new high in coal price in six years. In addition, this will drive BANPU’s profit in 2018 to 15 billion baht. Even, all the positive comment from brokers about high profit in second quarter of 2018 that promise an average profit at 3-5 billion baht, BANPU’s shares does not want to go higher, so it seems. Could it be...that what traders concern is not from financial statement but “doubt in management” instead? What a disappointment, what a letdown, and, of course, what A SHARE!!??