Safety

The long-awaited reopening of Thailand will kick off on November 1, 2021 to officially welcome tourist arrivals after more than a year of drought from the Covid-19 pandemic from early 2020 to this day. The reopening will allow tourists from 46 approved countries or territories to enter Thailand without the requirement for quarantine. 17 blue-zone provinces will be part of the reopening to vaccinated foreign arrivals and are expected to expand to 33 provinces by December and 45 in January. Those who are not fully vaccinated or who do not want to stay in the blue zone are required to follow the Alternative Quarantine system. The arrival of foreign tourists is expected to boost Thailand's economy significantly, especially in the upcoming travelling season in December to January, bringing traffic back to the sector that contributed around 20% to Thailand’s GDP in 2019, but fell to 6.78% in 2020. Fully-vaccinated arrivals are required to have an RT-PCR test (Covid test) at the SHA+ certified or alternative quarantine hotel upon arrival. Tourists must wait for the RT-PCR test result in the hotel for at least 1 night or until receiving a negative test result. Meanwhile, not fully-vaccinated tourist arrivals or do not have valid vaccination certificates can also travel to Thailand, but must be quarantined at a certified hotel for at least 10 days. Minor International Public Company Limited (MINT), Asset World Corp Public Company Limited (AWC), The Erawan Group Public Company Limited (ERW) and Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL) are among Thailand’s leading hotel operators that should benefit from the 1-night stay of tourist arrivals during the RT-PCR test and possibly more nights while staying in Thailand. Reserved by tourists, operating hotels will provide a 1-night package, which includes transportation service from the airport to the designated hotel, Covid-19 test and all accommodations during the stay. MINT has been enjoying the return of traffic in department stores from the relaxation of lockdown since early September. Now 19 hotels with SHA certificates are ready for the big reopening while the package for the 1-night stay during the Covid-19 test is under discussion with the management team. For safety concerns, MINT will be zoning within each hotel for quarantine and general customers. The company had a 13% occupancy rate of its Thai portfolio in 2Q21 which improved from 9% in 2Q20. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) in the quarter was 3,162 baht and a Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) of 416 baht. In 4Q19, MINT recorded an occupancy rate of 72% with an ADR of 5,175 baht and a RevPar of 3,713 baht. AWC recorded a total revenue of the hospitality and related services at 298 million baht in 2Q21, increased 119.2% YoY. The hotels had an above-average RGI, especially Bangkok Marriott Hotel The Surawongse at 216.3, and the Athenee Hotel Bangkok, A Luxury Collection Hotel, at 160.2. The company’s overall RGI in 2Q21 stood at 125.3, higher than the market average of the comparable peers. Hotels such as Bangkok Marriott Hotel The Surawongse (SHA+) are expected to promote the 1-night package within a week, while Le Méridien Bangkok (SHA+) will be opened in December, including the 1-night package. In September 2021, all 18 AWC affiliated hotels received the SHA certification to affirm their quality and attention to safety and all are currently in operation. ERW has been fully opened since the beginning of 2021 with a total of 9,020 rooms available in Thailand ready for both domestic and international travellers. All hotels in the southern region of Thailand have received SHA+ while hotels in the Bangkok area are lining up for the upgrade from SHA to SHA+. Currently, the occupancy rate is gradually recovering to around 20% mostly from domestic tourism, boosted by the Thai government’s tourism scheme. As of 2Q21, ERW recorded an Average Room Rate (ARR) of 880 baht (+41% YoY) for its hotels in Thailand and a RevPar of 180 baht (+192% YoY). Looking back to pre-Covid period in 4Q19, ERW recorded occupancy rate around 78% with an ARR of 2,656 baht and a RevPar of 2,064 baht. CENTEL currently has 9 owned hotels open for operation with an SHA+ certificate, issued by the Amazing Thailand Safety and Health Administration for places that have approved Covid-19 protocol and 2,818 rooms available in Thailand. The management has yet to reveal the 1-night package for the upcoming reopening on November 1, 2021. In 2Q21, the company recorded an average of 11% occupancy rate in Thailand, increased 6% YoY. The ARR in Thailand was 2,343 baht in 2Q21 (-6% YoY), while RevPar was 259 baht, increased 133% YoY. Looking back to pre-Covid period, CENTEL recorded an average of 77.6% occupancy rate for hotels in Thailand in 4Q19 with an ARR of 3,514 baht and a RevPar of 2,727 baht. According to the consensus, MINT’s net profit is expected to improve from a net loss of 3,923 million baht in 2Q21 to a loss of 2,590 million baht in the third quarter. The company is expected to record a revenue of 17,740 million baht in 3Q21, representing a 165% increase from a revenue of 6,698 million baht in 2Q21. MINT could outperform other Thai hotel operators in terms of the recovery in 3Q due to its wide range of hotel branches in Europe that have been opened in the third quarter while Thailand was closed due to the third wave of Covid-19, especially in August. The share price of MINT rose 26% this year and closed at Bt32.50 per share on October 26. Still, the share price is trading below pre-Covid level by 9.7%. The consensus estimated AWC to report a net loss of 804 million baht in 3Q21, representing an increase by 306% from a net loss of 198 million baht in 2Q20. The revenue for the third quarter is estimated at 860 million baht, decreasing by 44% from a revenue of 1,546 million baht in 2Q21. The share price of AWC traded 1.7% lower this year and closed at Bt4.48 per share on October 26. AWC is still trading below pre-Covid level by 23.40%. The consensus expected ERW to report a net loss of 595 million baht for the third quarter of 2021, improved by 13% from a net loss of 689 million baht in the previous quarter. The revenue in 3Q21 is estimated at 217 million baht, representing a decrease by 19% from a revenue of 269 million baht in 2Q21. The share price of ERW rose 38% this year and closed at Bt3.20 per share on October 26. Still, the share price is trading below pre-Covid level by 46%. Lastly, CENTEL is estimated to record a net loss of 660 million baht in 3Q21, slightly increasing by 9% QoQ. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to decline by 15% to 2,285 million baht in 3Q21. The share price of CENTEL rose 50% this year and closed at Bt35.75 per share on October 26. The share price is trading above pre-Covid level by 43%. The market expected that the third quarter of 2021 should be the bottom of the tourism industry and the business would recover once the reopening starts. Income should gradually increase by the end of this year and continue to rise following the relaxing Covid-19 measures and more opening from 2022 onward.